Liver Resection for Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Preoperative Predictors of Non Transplantable Recurrence and Implications for Treatment Allocation

Background and Aims:LR and LT are the standard curative options for early HCC. LT provides best long-term survival but is limited by organ shortage. LR, readily available, is hampered by high recurrence rates. Salvage liver transplantation is an efficient treatment of recurrences within criteria. The aim of the study was to identify preoperative predictors of non transplantable recurrence (NTR) to improve patient selection for upfront LR or LT at initial diagnosis.Study Design:Consecutive LR for transplantable HCC between 2000 and 2015 were studied. A prediction model for NTR based on preoperative variables was developed using sub-distribution hazard ratio after multiple imputation and internal validation by bootstrapping. Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index after correction for optimism.Results:A total of 148 patients were included. Five-year overall survival and recurrence free survival were 73.6% and 29.3%, respectively (median follow-up 45.8 months). Recurrence rate was 54.8%. NTR rate was 38.2%. Preoperative model for NTR identified >1 nodule [sub-distribution hazard ratio 2.35 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35-4.09], AFP >100 ng/mL (2.14 95% CI 1.17-3.93), and F4 fibrosis (1.93 95% CI 1.03-3.62). The apparent concordance index of the model was 0.664 after correction for optimism. In the presence of 0, 1, and ≥2 factors, NTR rates were 2.6%, 22.7%, and 40.9%, respectively. The number of prognostic factors was significantly associated with the pattern of recurrence (P = 0.001) and 5-year recurrence free survival (P < 0.001).Conclusions:Cirrhosis, >1 nodule, and AFP >100 ng/mL were identified as preoperative predictors of NTR. In the presence of 2 factors or more upfront transplantation should be probably preferred to resection in regard of organ availability. Other patients are good candidates for LR and salvage liver transplantation should be encouraged in eligible patients with recurrence.