PREDICT Plus: Development and validation of a prognostic model for early breast cancer that includes HER2

G. C. Wishart; C. D. Bajdik; E. Dicks; E. Provenzano; M. K. Schmidt; M. Sherman; D. C. Greenberg; A. R. Green; K. A. Gelmon; V. M. Kosma; J. E. Olson; M. W. Beckmann; R. Winqvist; S. S. Cross; G. Severi; D. Huntsman; K. Pylkäs; I. Ellis; T. O. Nielsen; G. Giles; C. Blomqvist; P. A. Fasching; F. J. Couch; E. Rakha; W. D. Foulkes; F. M. Blows; L. R. Bégin; L. J. Van'T Veer; M. Southey; H. Nevanlinna; A. Mannermaa; A. Cox; M. Cheang; L. Baglietto; C. Caldas; M. Garcia-Closas; P. D.P. Pharoah

doi:10.1038/bjc.2012.338

PREDICT Plus: Development and validation of a prognostic model for early breast cancer that includes HER2

G. C. Wishart, C. D. Bajdik, E. Dicks, E. Provenzano, M. K. Schmidt, M. Sherman, D. C. Greenberg, A. R. Green, K. A. Gelmon, V. M. Kosma, J. E. Olson, M. W. Beckmann, R. Winqvist, S. S. Cross, G. Severi, D. Huntsman, K. Pylkäs, I. Ellis, T. O. Nielsen, G. GilesC. Blomqvist, P. A. Fasching, F. J. Couch, E. Rakha, W. D. Foulkes, F. M. Blows, L. R. Bégin, L. J. Van'T Veer, M. Southey, H. Nevanlinna, A. Mannermaa, A. Cox, M. Cheang, L. Baglietto, C. Caldas, M. Garcia-Closas, P. D.P. Pharoah

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Résumé

Background:Predict (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online, breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of HER2 status in a new version (Predict+), and to compare its performance with the original Predict and Adjuvant.Methods:The prognostic effect of HER2 status was based on an analysis of data from 10 179 breast cancer patients from 14 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The hazard ratio estimates were incorporated into Predict. The validation study was based on 1653 patients with early-stage invasive breast cancer identified from the British Columbia Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit. Predicted overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) for Predict, Predict and Adjuvant were compared with observed outcomes.Results:All three models performed well for both OS and BCSS. Both Predict models provided better BCSS estimates than Adjuvant. In the subset of patients with HER2-positive tumours, Predict+ performed substantially better than the other two models for both OS and BCSS.Conclusion:Predict+ is the first clinical breast cancer prognostication tool that includes tumour HER2 status. Use of the model might lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.

langue originale	Anglais
Pages (de - à)	800-807
Nombre de pages	8
journal	British Journal of Cancer
Volume	107
Numéro de publication	5
Les DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2012.338
état	Publié - 21 août 2012
Modification externe	Oui

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10.1038/bjc.2012.338

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Wishart, G. C., Bajdik, C. D., Dicks, E., Provenzano, E., Schmidt, M. K., Sherman, M., Greenberg, D. C., Green, A. R., Gelmon, K. A., Kosma, V. M., Olson, J. E., Beckmann, M. W., Winqvist, R., Cross, S. S., Severi, G., Huntsman, D., Pylkäs, K., Ellis, I., Nielsen, T. O., ... Pharoah, P. D. P. (2012). PREDICT Plus: Development and validation of a prognostic model for early breast cancer that includes HER2. British Journal of Cancer, 107(5), 800-807. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2012.338

@article{f59b8335ea13418e9880c9ef50dafa29,

title = "PREDICT Plus: Development and validation of a prognostic model for early breast cancer that includes HER2",

abstract = "Background:Predict (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online, breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of HER2 status in a new version (Predict+), and to compare its performance with the original Predict and Adjuvant.Methods:The prognostic effect of HER2 status was based on an analysis of data from 10 179 breast cancer patients from 14 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The hazard ratio estimates were incorporated into Predict. The validation study was based on 1653 patients with early-stage invasive breast cancer identified from the British Columbia Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit. Predicted overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) for Predict, Predict and Adjuvant were compared with observed outcomes.Results:All three models performed well for both OS and BCSS. Both Predict models provided better BCSS estimates than Adjuvant. In the subset of patients with HER2-positive tumours, Predict+ performed substantially better than the other two models for both OS and BCSS.Conclusion:Predict+ is the first clinical breast cancer prognostication tool that includes tumour HER2 status. Use of the model might lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.",

keywords = "HER2, breast cancer, prognostic model",

author = "Wishart, {G. C.} and Bajdik, {C. D.} and E. Dicks and E. Provenzano and Schmidt, {M. K.} and M. Sherman and Greenberg, {D. C.} and Green, {A. R.} and Gelmon, {K. A.} and Kosma, {V. M.} and Olson, {J. E.} and Beckmann, {M. W.} and R. Winqvist and Cross, {S. S.} and G. Severi and D. Huntsman and K. Pylk{\"a}s and I. Ellis and Nielsen, {T. O.} and G. Giles and C. Blomqvist and Fasching, {P. A.} and Couch, {F. J.} and E. Rakha and Foulkes, {W. D.} and Blows, {F. M.} and B{\'e}gin, {L. R.} and {Van'T Veer}, {L. J.} and M. Southey and H. Nevanlinna and A. Mannermaa and A. Cox and M. Cheang and L. Baglietto and C. Caldas and M. Garcia-Closas and Pharoah, {P. D.P.}",

year = "2012",

month = aug,

day = "21",

doi = "10.1038/bjc.2012.338",

language = "English",

volume = "107",

pages = "800--807",

journal = "British Journal of Cancer",

issn = "0007-0920",

number = "5",

}

Wishart, GC, Bajdik, CD, Dicks, E, Provenzano, E, Schmidt, MK, Sherman, M, Greenberg, DC, Green, AR, Gelmon, KA, Kosma, VM, Olson, JE, Beckmann, MW, Winqvist, R, Cross, SS, Severi, G, Huntsman, D, Pylkäs, K, Ellis, I, Nielsen, TO, Giles, G, Blomqvist, C, Fasching, PA, Couch, FJ, Rakha, E, Foulkes, WD, Blows, FM, Bégin, LR, Van'T Veer, LJ, Southey, M, Nevanlinna, H, Mannermaa, A, Cox, A, Cheang, M, Baglietto, L, Caldas, C, Garcia-Closas, M & Pharoah, PDP 2012, 'PREDICT Plus: Development and validation of a prognostic model for early breast cancer that includes HER2', British Journal of Cancer, VOL. 107, Numéro 5, p. 800-807. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2012.338

TY - JOUR

T1 - PREDICT Plus

T2 - Development and validation of a prognostic model for early breast cancer that includes HER2

AU - Wishart, G. C.

AU - Bajdik, C. D.

AU - Dicks, E.

AU - Provenzano, E.

AU - Schmidt, M. K.

AU - Sherman, M.

AU - Greenberg, D. C.

AU - Green, A. R.

AU - Gelmon, K. A.

AU - Kosma, V. M.

AU - Olson, J. E.

AU - Beckmann, M. W.

AU - Winqvist, R.

AU - Cross, S. S.

AU - Severi, G.

AU - Huntsman, D.

AU - Pylkäs, K.

AU - Ellis, I.

AU - Nielsen, T. O.

AU - Giles, G.

AU - Blomqvist, C.

AU - Fasching, P. A.

AU - Couch, F. J.

AU - Rakha, E.

AU - Foulkes, W. D.

AU - Blows, F. M.

AU - Bégin, L. R.

AU - Van'T Veer, L. J.

AU - Southey, M.

AU - Nevanlinna, H.

AU - Mannermaa, A.

AU - Cox, A.

AU - Cheang, M.

AU - Baglietto, L.

AU - Caldas, C.

AU - Garcia-Closas, M.

AU - Pharoah, P. D.P.

PY - 2012/8/21

Y1 - 2012/8/21

N2 - Background:Predict (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online, breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of HER2 status in a new version (Predict+), and to compare its performance with the original Predict and Adjuvant.Methods:The prognostic effect of HER2 status was based on an analysis of data from 10 179 breast cancer patients from 14 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The hazard ratio estimates were incorporated into Predict. The validation study was based on 1653 patients with early-stage invasive breast cancer identified from the British Columbia Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit. Predicted overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) for Predict, Predict and Adjuvant were compared with observed outcomes.Results:All three models performed well for both OS and BCSS. Both Predict models provided better BCSS estimates than Adjuvant. In the subset of patients with HER2-positive tumours, Predict+ performed substantially better than the other two models for both OS and BCSS.Conclusion:Predict+ is the first clinical breast cancer prognostication tool that includes tumour HER2 status. Use of the model might lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.

AB - Background:Predict (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online, breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of HER2 status in a new version (Predict+), and to compare its performance with the original Predict and Adjuvant.Methods:The prognostic effect of HER2 status was based on an analysis of data from 10 179 breast cancer patients from 14 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The hazard ratio estimates were incorporated into Predict. The validation study was based on 1653 patients with early-stage invasive breast cancer identified from the British Columbia Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit. Predicted overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) for Predict, Predict and Adjuvant were compared with observed outcomes.Results:All three models performed well for both OS and BCSS. Both Predict models provided better BCSS estimates than Adjuvant. In the subset of patients with HER2-positive tumours, Predict+ performed substantially better than the other two models for both OS and BCSS.Conclusion:Predict+ is the first clinical breast cancer prognostication tool that includes tumour HER2 status. Use of the model might lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.

KW - HER2

KW - breast cancer

KW - prognostic model

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84865432875&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/bjc.2012.338

DO - 10.1038/bjc.2012.338

M3 - Article

C2 - 22850554

AN - SCOPUS:84865432875

SN - 0007-0920

VL - 107

SP - 800

EP - 807

JO - British Journal of Cancer

JF - British Journal of Cancer

IS - 5

ER -